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USDA ERS: October Feed Outlook

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Feed and residual use for the four feed grains (corn, sorghum, barley, and oats) and wheat, on a September-August marketing year basis, for 2018/19 is projected at 151.5 million metric tons, 2.2 million above last month’s projection of 149.3 million. Increased sorghum and wheat was offset by reduced corn, barley, and oats feed and residual, accounting for the change from last month.

U.S. feed grain supplies are raised 1.8 million metric tons (MMT) this month as lower production for corn is offset by larger corn carryin and higher sorghum production due to higher yields. Supply is projected at 450.4 million tons, 1.5 million below 2017/18. Projected feed grain use is raised 1.3 million tons this month to 400.9 million, 10.0 million higher than 2017/18. Feed and residual is raised marginally to 145.3 million, while food, seed, and industrial (FSI) is unchanged at 188.8 million. 

USDA’s National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) third survey-based yield forecast for the 2018/19 corn crop reported a yield decline of 0.6 bushels per acre to 180.7 bushels from last month’s forecast, still a record high.

Global coarse grain production in 2018/19 is projected down 3.8 million tons this month to 1,343.4 million, while foreign coarse grain output is reduced by 2.5 million tons to 953.9 million, which is down 22.8 million tons from the year before. Most of the reduction is for Russian corn and barley, Indian millet, and Australian sorghum, with partly offsetting increases for Egyptian and Canadian corn. 

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