Brazil is set to break records in its 2024/25 grain harvest, according to the National Supply Company (Conab). The country is projected to produce 332.9 million tons of grain—an increase of 35.4 million tons over the previous cycle. If confirmed, this would be the highest volume ever recorded in Conab's historical series.
The cultivated area is expected to grow by 2.2% to 81.7 million hectares, while average yields are projected to rise by 9.5%, reaching 4,074 kilograms per hectare.
Soybeans are leading the surge, with an estimated harvest of 168.3 million tons—the largest ever recorded in Brazil. Harvesting has already been completed across most of the country, including in the Midwest, Southeast, Paraná, and Tocantins. Exceptional yields were reported in states like Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Bahia, Rondônia, and Tocantins, thanks to favorable weather and the increasing professionalism of Brazilian farmers.
Corn is also a standout crop this season. Total production is projected at 126.9 million tons, a 9.9% increase from 2023/24. The first corn crop harvest is 77.6% complete, with an estimated 24.7 million tons. The second crop is fully sown and expected to yield around 99.8 million tons. Weather conditions have remained favorable, particularly during key growth stages such as flowering and grain filling.
U.S. 2025/26 forecast: More corn, less soybeans amid trade realignment
Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its 2025/26 forecasts in the May’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, projecting a record U.S. corn crop amid a shifting global trade landscape.
The USDA estimates U.S. corn production at 15.82 billion bushels for 2025, up 6% from 2024 and slightly above pre-report trade estimates. The announcement came as the Trump administration declared a temporary tariff de-escalation with China, easing tensions after months of high trade barriers.
In contrast, the U.S. soybean outlook is more subdued. Production is forecast at 4.34 billion bushels, down slightly due to lower planted area, though crush demand is expected to rise by 70 million bushels. This reflects growing domestic demand for soybean meal, driven by higher pork and poultry output, and for soybean oil, largely due to increased biofuel production.
Soybean oil usage for biofuels is projected to hit 13.9 billion pounds, while the season-average soybean price is expected to rise to $10.25 per bushel—up from $9.95 in 2024/25. Soybean meal and oil prices are also expected to rise, to $310 per short ton and 46 cents per pound, respectively.
Under the new tariff agreement, the U.S. will impose a base 30% tariff on most Chinese imports until August, while China will lower its tariff on U.S. imports to 10%. These rates are significantly reduced from the earlier peaks of 145% and 125%.
