Global soybean trade for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast at 180.2 million metric tons, up 5.1 million metric tons from the revised global soybean trade estimates for MY 2023/24, according to the USDA Oil Crops Outlook for July 2024. Global soybean trade for MY 2023/24 is increased to 175.1 million metric tons on higher exports from Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Benin, and Canada.
Brazil’s soybean exports forecast for MY 2023/24 is raised to 103.0 million metric tons, while Brazil’s exports forecast for MY 2024/25 is unchanged at 105.0 million metric tons. Argentina’s soybean exports for MY 2023/24 are also increased this month to 5.6 million metric tons.
China has been the main destination for Brazil’s and Argentina’s soybean exports. As a result of the higher-than-expected shipments and estimates for June loadings, China’s soybean imports forecast for MY 2023/24 is increased this month to 108.0 million metric tons. With higher soybean imports forecast and unchanged domestic soybean use, China’s soybean carry-over stocks for MY 2023/24 are increased by the same amount. China’s soybean imports forecast for MY 2024/25 is unchanged this month at 109.0 million metric tons.
According to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Acreage report, U.S. soybean production for MY 2024/25 is forecast at 4.4 billion bushels, down 15.0 million bushels from last month but 270.3 million bushels higher than production in MY 2023/24. With a lower production forecast and unchanged soybean crush and export forecasts, U.S. ending soybean stocks for MY 2024/25 are projected at 435.0 million bushels for MY 2024/25, down 20 million bushels from last month’s forecast. The U.S. season-average soybean price forecast for MY 2024/25 is lowered by 10 cents this month to $11.10 per bushel.
