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Grain prices to increase after Russia exits grain deal

The International Monetary Fund estimated a 10-15% increase in global grain prices as a result of Russia pulling out the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Markets
July 31, 2023

After Russia suspended its participation in the Black Sea Grain initiative, Ukraine will now have to rely almost entirely on exporting grains through the European routes which are more expensive. Reuters reported that Ukraine's agriculture ministry asked EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis for the Commission to provide financial aid for the extra transport cost of using alternate EU routes known as "Solidarity Lanes". Ukraine estimates the extra cost to be $30-40 a tonne.

The letter also asked for the Solidarity Lanes to be expanded by 1-1.5 million tonnes a month through "green corridors" including to the Adriatic Sea, the Baltic States, to Germany and the Netherlands. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund estimated a 10-15% increase in global grain prices as a result of Russia pulling out the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Russia promises grain for Africa

At a Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, Russian president Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready to replace Ukrainian grain exports to Africa on both a commercial and aid basis “to fulfill what he said was Moscow's critical role in global food security”. Putin said the country will be ready to provide Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Central African Republic and Eritrea with 25-50,000 tonnes of free grain in the next three to four months, Reuters reported.

At the same event, African leaders also pressed Putin to move ahead with their plan to end the Ukraine conflict and renew a deal crucial to Africa on the safe wartime export of Ukrainian grain. While not directly critical for Russia, their interventions on the second day of the summit were more concerted and forceful than those that African countries have voiced until now, Reuters reported.