The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for reduced supplies, lower consumption, decreased trade, and lower stocks, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) August report. Supplies are projected to decline by 4.3 million tons to 1,061.7 million as reduced production for the EU, China, and Canada is only partially offset by increases for Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Global consumption is reduced by 3.4 million tons to 796.1 million, mainly on lower feed and residual use by the EU and reduced food, seed, and industrial use by China.
The 2023/24 oilseed supply and demand forecast includes lower exports, reduced crush, and higher ending stocks. Ukraine and Russia sunflower seed production is forecast higher as timely rain in July improved yield potential. Conversely, Canada’s canola crop lowered by 1.3 million tons to 19.0 million as drought intensified in the southwestern prairies during July. EU sunflower seed production also reduced on lower production for Romania, Spain, and France.
Global soybean ending stocks are reduced by 1.6 million tons to 119.4 million mainly on lower U.S. stocks. US soybean production is expected to decrease by 2% from 2022. Global soybean exports are reduced by 0.5 million tons to 168.8 million on lower U.S. exports. Soybean crush and imports are reduced for Bangladesh, Egypt, and Pakistan, in line with downward revisions in the prior marketing year.
Global corn production lowered, falling from a record high to the second highest on record, with cuts to China, the European Union, Russia, and the United States more than offsetting production gains in Ukraine and Canada. Global exports are down, with cuts to the United States and the European Union more than offsetting stronger exports from Brazil. Global imports are also forecast to decrease, with cuts to Egypt and Algeria more than offsetting gains for Canada and Zimbabwe.
China's soybean imports raised to a record high
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service raised 2022/23 (October-September) China soybean imports to a new record of 100.0 million tons. Imports are expected to remain high in the last quarter of the year as the world’s top buyer sources competitively-priced soybeans from South America as well as clears the customs backlog of cargoes that have already arrived. Through 10 months of the current marketing year, China has already imported nearly 84.5 million tons of soybeans, with almost 30.0 million sourced from the United States.
In 2023/24, China is projected to remain the world’s largest soybean buyer with imports forecast at 99.0 million tons. China is likely to continue buying larger volumes of soybeans from Brazil and potentially less from the United States. Prices of the new U.S. crop have been rising on lower supply expectations, while Brazil's output prospects remain robust.
