One of the most anticipated sessions during the Global Shrimp Forum is the Export and Import Statistics presentation by Willem van der Pijl, board member and managing director of the Global Shrimp Forum Foundation, who highlights the latest shifts in product and trade flows.
In recent years, the global shrimp trade has undergone fundamental changes, with Ecuador at the center of this transformation. The country has rapidly expanded both production and exports, reshaping traditional trade flows. Historically, Ecuador focused on head-on shell-on (HOSO) exports to China and southern Europe. Today, however, the country is aggressively moving into headless shell-on (HLSO) and peeled shrimp markets in the U.S., northern Europe, and beyond. The pace of this expansion will depend on three factors: the availability of local labor, the growth of processing plant capacity, and the degree to which peeling operations can be automated.
This shift is disrupting global markets once dominated by India, Vietnam, China, and Indonesia. India, the world’s second-largest exporter, is adjusting its strategy. While farmers are trying to nurture the domestic market, processors and exporters are looking beyond the U.S., turning toward Europe and Southeast Asia. They are also investing in value-added shrimp products, where India increasingly competes with Vietnam and Indonesia.
Vietnam and Indonesia, once leaders in value-added exports, now face mounting competition from India. Their challenge will be to protect existing markets, expand into new niches, and strengthen domestic demand, especially where they can differentiate themselves against Ecuador and India.
These market shifts are taking place just as proposed U.S. reciprocal tariffs add further complexity. While the full impact of tariffs remains uncertain, they are expected to accelerate Ecuador’s competitive edge. According to van der Pijl, “the bigger picture is clear: trade flows are being reconfigured, with Ecuador, and in the longer term, India, emerging as the biggest winners. Smaller producers, such as Vietnam and Indonesia, face increasing pressure.”
Despite these uncertainties, underlying trends show that the rebalancing of the shrimp trade was already underway before tariffs came into play. “Tariffs are amplifying, not creating, these changes,” van der Pijl said.
Ecuador shrimp exports up
Exports in the first quarter rose 20%, followed by a 14% increase in the second quarter, bringing total shipments for the first six months to nearly 400,000 tons. Overall, exports were up 17% year-on-year in the first half. In May 2025, Ecuador crossed a new milestone, exporting more than 150,000 tons in a single month for the first time, van der Pijl said, based on data from the National Chamber of Aquaculture.
Looking ahead, the second half of the year is expected to grow more moderately. If volumes rise by around 10% year-on-year, Ecuador could end 2024 with 1.4 million metric tons of shrimp exports. However, given current momentum, volumes could approach 1.5 million tons.
The distribution of Ecuador’s exports continues to diversify and in the past 18 months, the strongest year-on-year growth has come from other Asian markets (Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Sri Lanka; up 43% year-on-year) and Europe (up 38%). Much of this trade into Asia is for reprocessing, underlining that Ecuador’s domestic processing capacity has not yet caught up with its booming production.
In Europe, growth has been broad-based across the continent, led by France and Spain, followed by Italy, Russia, and the UK. “It’s clear that shrimp from Ecuador is being absorbed across Europe,” van der Pijl said.
If current trends hold, Ecuador could export close to 800,000 tons to China, around 250,000 tons to the U.S., and over 300,000 tons to Europe by the end of 2025.
One example of Ecuador’s scale is Santa Priscila, the country’s largest producer. The company exported around 300,000 tons in 2024, equivalent to about one-third of India’s total exports, underscoring Ecuador’s growing dominance in global shrimp supply.
Sandro Coglitore, general manager of Omarsa, said that there is still room to increase production in Ecuador. “As consolidation goes on, there will be ponds that were producing at low densities and are underutilized that will increase their production capacity. There won’t be new hectares, but there will be upgrades in technology and more intensive farming.”
India maintains shrimp growth but faces tariff and regulatory headwinds
India’s shrimp exports grew by around 3% in 2024 and recorded another 3% increase in the first half of 2025, holding steady despite shifting global trade dynamics, according to data from the Indian Ministry of Commerce. If this trend continues, exports could reach 750,000 tons by year-end.
The country’s product mix remains more diverse than Ecuador’s, with a strong focus on value-added shrimp, which is showing solid growth. In contrast, Black Tiger shrimp exports have been weak so far this year, though volumes may recover as the season progresses. India is also looking to expand its footprint in cooked, breaded, and marinated products, competing with Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand in higher-value markets.
US tariffs already pose potential risks, but the country also has regulatory challenges in the EU regarding the use of antibiotics. The European Commission, in October 2024, established a list of authorized countries through Regulation (EU) 2024/2598 that meet EU requirements on antimicrobial use. These countries are authorized for the entry into the union of certain animals and products of animal origin intended for human consumption. Countries not listed, such as India, must submit declarations and provide appropriate guarantees to prevent trade disruptions by September 2026. Failure to comply could significantly restrict market access, though ongoing EU-India free trade agreement negotiations may reshape opportunities.
“The entire country must be approved. The EU wants a list of antibiotics or growth stimulators not being used in the culture of either shrimp or any other animal. But there are two main challenges: one is forbidding the substance and the other is how to enforce it in a country with the dimensions of India,” van der Pijl said.
Gunturu Pawan Kumar, president of Seafood Exporters Association of India, expected a deal to be made in October with the EU and that the main issue with being listed is that they didn’t deliver the documentation.
Looking ahead, India is working to diversify beyond shrimp. Investments in industrial tilapia farming are gaining traction. From January-June 2025, already 10,000 MT were exported (53% increase y-o-y). If the trend continues, the year total may reach 20,000 MT, with more companies investing in integrated production, signaling a push to broaden its aquaculture base and reduce reliance on a single species to thrive over the next 4-5 years.
Vietnam shrimp exports rebound
After a sharp drop in 2023, Vietnam’s shrimp sector has shown signs of recovery. In the first half of 2025, exports grew by 14% year-on-year, and if this trend continues, volumes could reach nearly 400,000 tons by year-end, according to mirror trade statistics. Trends indicate a gradual recovery in vannamei exports, which account for around 75% of total export value, with black tiger shrimp making up about 15%.
Value-added processing remains a defining strength. While volumes dipped in 2023, value-added shrimp has rebounded and is expected to gain importance as India and other competitors push further into this segment. This could spur Vietnam to deepen its focus on cooked, processed, and specialty products.
In terms of trade flows, Vietnam has successfully diversified its markets across Asia, Europe, and North America. The country also continues to play a key role as a pre-processing hub, though volumes of imported shrimp for reprocessing have been trending downward over the past three years. A recent uptick in Ecuadorian exports to Vietnam suggests that processing activity could increase again in the near term.
Willem said that the country is suffering from severe disease issues that will impact production growth.
Indonesia shrimp exports stabilize
Indonesia’s shrimp sector has shown modest recovery after declines in 2023, with growth recorded in the second half of last year and continuing into the first half of 2025. Export volumes topped 20,000 tons in a single month for the first time since 2022, signaling that production has at least stabilized (BPS data).
For the full year, exports are projected to reach around 220,000 tons, though this estimate depends heavily on how tariffs and global trade dynamics play out. Analysts caution that volumes could slip further if current challenges intensify.
Indonesia remains highly dependent on the U.S. market, leaving it exposed to volatility and trade policy shifts. Recent tariff developments briefly improved Indonesia’s competitiveness against India, but market conditions remain unpredictable, van der Pijl said.
While the EU is still a small destination, Indonesia has shown rapid growth in exports to Europe during the first half of 2025, though from a low base of around 5,000 tons. This diversification, if sustained, could provide a more balanced export portfolio in the coming years.
Aris Utama, director of Bumi Menara Internusa, commented on the recent contamination of shrimp from Indonesia, saying that “there is no nuclear power plant in Indonesia. The different government agencies are trying to clarify where the issue comes from. However, the impact has not been only on one company but is also affecting the perception of the country.”
U.S. shrimp imports surge ahead of tariffs
The U.S. shrimp market rebounded in the first half of 2025 after a dip last year, with a substantial year-on-year increase in imports. This surge was largely driven by pre-tariff shipments, as exporters rushed to move product before trade measures took effect. Despite the boost, analysts expect volumes to decline in the second half of the year. If trends hold, total U.S. imports are projected to close around 780,000 tons by year-end.
Looking at suppliers, India remains dominant in the peeled segment, although it has faced increasing competition. Ecuador, which had slowed shipments to the U.S. in recent years, recorded a nearly 14% increase in peeled exports during the first half of 2025. Vietnam continues to push into the peeled category, while Indonesia’s volumes remain steady to slightly declining.
For shell-on shrimp, Ecuador has taken the lead, replacing India, which has lost most of its share in this segment, dropping to just 30,000 tons last year. Meanwhile, the value-added market continues to be led by India, with Indonesia and Vietnam holding smaller but steady positions.
The regulatory environment remains a significant source of uncertainty. Preliminary rulings on anti-dumping tariffs suggest that, if finalized, all but a handful of exporters could face duties of up to 35%, a sharp increase from previous years when many companies qualified for 0% rates.
At what point do higher costs start to hit demand? Henry delaLlana, vice president – Procurement at Chicken of the Sea, said that “tariffs have been gradually absorbed, and front-loading helped slow the impact. At this point, maybe 10% of the tariffs have reached consumers, mainly through retail. But inventories are shrinking, and by Q4, when consumer demand rises for the holidays, we’ll really see the effect on prices.”
China's shrimp imports show a continued decline
China’s shrimp import volumes continue to trend downward. Chinese customs available data show that imports fell 4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. If this trend continues, total imports could reach around 880,000 tons for the year.
Ecuador, historically China’s dominant supplier, recorded a year-on-year 3% decline in the first half of 2025, following last year’s dip. India, which held steady in 2024, also saw a 7% drop in exports to China over the same period.
Industry observers note that the Chinese market remains challenging due to fluctuating demand, stricter import controls, and ongoing shifts in global trade flows. Stakeholders are watching closely to see if the second half of 2025 will stabilize or bring further contraction.
Kavan Li, head of global aquatic business at OIG, said that in China, demand for shrimp continues to grow, though the dynamics are changing. Imports have dipped slightly this year, but domestic production is rising sharply. Today, almost 70% of shrimp consumed in China is produced locally, a significant shift in just a few years.
“That doesn’t mean imports are irrelevant. They remain important, especially to balance supply and meet consumer demand for variety and quality. The key difference is structural: imports may not grow as fast as before, but domestic production is filling much of the gap. Over the long run, both sources will expand, with imports playing a complementary role,” Li said.
The EU shrimp market is more important than assumed
The EU is a complex market that imports wild-caught and farmed shrimp. Demand has increased in 2024, and the first half of 2025 already showed substantial gains. “This suggests that the EU is a more important global market than previously assumed,” van der Pijl said.
Latin America continues to dominate the EU shrimp supply, with Ecuador leading the way. In the first half of 2025, imports from Ecuador rose 39% year-on-year. Asian suppliers also expanded their share, posting 21% growth in the first half of 2025. India, in particular, has shown a steady upward trend in recent years, while Bangladesh has struggled, reflecting the challenges smaller producers face in the current market environment.
The value-added segment is growing even faster than raw shrimp, with imports rising 25-29% in the first half of 2024. Vietnam continues to dominate this category, followed by Indonesia, though India and Indonesia are expected to challenge Vietnam’s position going forward.
The Japanese shrimp imports increase with tourism
Japan showed some recovery in shrimp imports in 2024 (ITC Trademap). If the growth seen in the first half of 2025 continues, total imports could reach around 220,000 tons. Kotaro Mori, general manager of Maruha Nichiro, said that one key driver is tourism. “Japan welcomed 37 million visitors last year, the highest ever, which boosted seafood consumption.” However, seafood consumption has been declining for decades in the country.
Unlike other markets, Japan maintains a relatively balanced demand between raw frozen and value-added products. Growth has been strongest in the raw frozen segment. The raw frozen market is supplied primarily by India, Vietnam, and Indonesia, with Ecuador emerging as a top-five supplier for the first time in 2024.
In the value-added category, Thailand remains a notable supplier, one of the few markets where it still holds a significant presence. Its established integration with Japanese buyers has helped maintain this position, despite losing share elsewhere.
“Japan remains attractive due to its consistent demand and premium standards, but its growth rate is slower compared to China, the U.S., or the EU. Suppliers increasingly see it as part of a diversified export strategy rather than a volume driver. Still, Ecuador’s new role signals that even mature markets like Japan are open to shifts in sourcing,” van der Pijl said.
