IFFO’s Members’ Meeting, held in Madrid from May 13-14, 2025, brought together a record 267 delegates from 36 countries. This year, the main highlight was the industry’s recovery following the El Niño event.
During the meeting, Enrico Bachis, market research director at IFFO, presented 2025 projections for fishmeal and fish oil: 5.6 million tons of fishmeal and 1.2-1.3 million tons of fish oil. With Peruvian production recovering and other global producers maintaining stable levels, fishmeal and fish oil production are expected to remain consistent in 2025.
However, El Niño impacted more than just production levels, it also drove structural change in the industry. “This year, we saw Cooke acquiring Copeinca, and Centinela was acquired by Exalmar. Last year, another Peruvian company was also sold. Some companies are better positioned to withstand fishing bans, so after El Niño, we are seeing consolidation in the industry,” Bachis said.
Byproducts and supply diversification
A continuing trend into 2024 is the growing use of byproducts, now accounting for 37% of total fishmeal and fish oil production. “As aquaculture grows, the availability of byproducts for marine ingredient production increases, mainly from salmon and pangasius. With fisheries remaining stagnant, aquaculture will be the only new source for producing fishmeal and fish oil,” Bachis explained.
One example is fish oil, with 100,000 tons of circular oil reentering the value chain every year. “This circular oil comes from recovered side streams in fish oil refining and concentration processes, previously unaccounted for but now recognized as valuable. Extensive R&D has characterized these byproducts for various applications in animal nutrition, enhancing digestibility, oxidation resistance, and pellet quality,” said Jorge Garcia Herz, CEO, Marex Global Sourcing.
Brett Glencross, technical director at IFFO, cited Pelagia as an example of innovation in the marine byproducts sector. “Instead of just selling fishmeal and oil from byproducts, they’ve developed phosphorus concentrates, protein concentrates, and various oil fractions. They realized they could derive more value by breaking the products down than by selling them as a simple blend. I believe that’s the future of marine ingredients.”
This shift in sourcing is also affecting product development, especially in omega-3s for human consumption. The sector has been heavily reliant on 1812 oils from Peru, but is now expanding to include algae and other fish oil sources. “In the U.S., labels are moving from strict 1812 (180 mg EPA, 120 mg DHA) claims to broader ‘300 mg omega-3’ formulations. While this offers flexibility and resilience to future El Niño events, it also raises health questions, but there is no scientific evidence that 1812 is the ideal ratio. The market is also seeing products that blend various fish oils and even soy,” said Aldo Bernasconi, vice president of Data Science at GOED.
Jorge Garcia Herz, CEO, Marex Global Sourcing. Credits: IFFO
Demand
Demand for marine ingredients remains strong, particularly in aquafeed and pet food. “The only place where we see a drop is in the pig sector, especially in China, where high prices have driven the search for alternatives,” said Bachis. “Aquafeed, pet food, and nutraceuticals will continue to drive demand, fueled by a growing population, an expanding middle class, and smaller families, where pets are increasingly viewed as family members.”
Sustainability plays a central role in shaping demand, particularly in Europe and the U.S., but it's also gaining traction in export-oriented countries like Vietnam. “CP Thailand has also grown significantly by leading the development of the industry,” Bachis noted. “In China, quality takes preference over sustainability for now, but since quality often goes hand-in-hand with well-managed stocks, sustainability will likely follow.”
He added that “the shift in China from low-value to high-value, carnivorous species, which rely more on marine ingredients, is currently driving demand there. The pig sector, which once consumed 500,000 tonnes of fishmeal, now uses only 50,000 to 100,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, demand is rising in both pet food and human consumption.”
In Europe, salmon remains the primary consumer of marine ingredients, followed by seabass and seabream to a lesser extent. “However, market conditions for bass and bream are currently challenging, with profitability issues,” Bachis explained. “If the industry can improve its financial position, potentially helped by Avramar's acquisition, we expect increased demand for fishmeal and fish oil in Europe.”
Bachis also highlighted two key consumer trends: sustainability and dietary protein shifts. “In Western countries, consumers demand sustainably produced food. In China and other nations with a growing middle class, the focus is on healthier eating, which is driving increased demand for seafood. As incomes rise in Asia, people are shifting from pig protein to seafood, which is perceived as healthier.”
China
IFFO’s China director, Maggie Xu, reported that the Chinese market is becoming more open and diversified regarding imported marine ingredients. Administrative processes are also becoming more streamlined and transparent.
Fishmeal production in China dropped significantly in 2024, with a decrease in Russian sardine imports and an increase in fishmeal from tilapia byproducts. Fish oil production also declined, with 44% now sourced from byproducts. With Peru’s recovery and new import sources like Argentina, Brazil, and the Faroe Islands, imports surged in 2024 compared to 2023.
In 2024, aquaculture accounted for 97% of fishmeal consumption, followed by pig farming and pet food. For fish oil, aquaculture used 55%, direct human consumption 41%, and pet food 4%. Human consumption saw the greatest increase due to aging demographics and rising health awareness, Xu reported.
According to the Statistical Bulletin of National Economy, China’s aquaculture output in 2024 exceeded 60 million tons, up 4.3% year-over-year. Xu discussed the move from inshore aquaculture to offshore and inland pond farming in China. “Nowadays, China's offshore farming production is almost half a million tons, all of which are high-end carnivorous fish species,” Xu said. National aquafeed production declined 3.5% to 23.4 million tons in 2024, reflecting early-year market uncertainty. In the pig sector, prices have improved to support farming profits, with the government focusing on quality enhancement.
In 2025, marine ingredient production in China is expected to decline further. "Falling prices hurt profitability, discouraging production. Fishmeal imports hit a record last year and are expected to remain high," Xu said. “Rising prices for carnivorous fish and strong piglet demand may also boost fishmeal demand.”
Regarding U.S. tariffs, Bachis said China has been preparing for years. “Tariffs will affect U.S. exporters, but China only imports 60,000 tons from the U.S. out of 2 million total imports. It won’t be a major issue since China has been approving more sources to diversify supply.”
Fisheries management
Marine ingredients play a crucial role in both the animal feed and the health supplement industry. IFFO has been extensively working to demonstrate that these ingredients are responsibly sourced and produced, supporting two key third-party certification schemes: the MarinTrust Standard and the Chain of Custody Standard, alongside Fishery Improvement Projects (FIPs).
“Certifications help you sell better, and well-managed stocks help you sustain your business,” said Bachis. “IFFO began working with certifications because we knew the industry had to prove it was doing things right, and to push those falling short toward better management.” He noted that global marine ingredient production has remained steady at 6 million tonnes in recent years, except during El Niño events, which he considers a sign of successful fisheries management.
There’s growing evidence that sustainable fisheries are working. “The share of fishery stocks within biologically sustainable levels was 62.3% in 2021. However, when weighted by production volume, 76.9% of 2021 landings came from sustainable stocks, according to FAO data. That shows sustainable management is effective,” said Audun Lem, deputy director of the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Division.
However, challenges remain. The North Atlantic fisheries—notably for mackerel, blue whiting, and Atlanto-Scandian herring—have recently lost their MSC certification due to the absence of science-based quota-sharing agreements among coastal states. Aquafeed companies have called for an urgent resolution. “If producers lose certification, they can't sell in Europe. They will have to look to other markets like China, where competition is fierce,” Bachis explained. “This is a political issue. Without decisive government action, it won't be resolved. We all hope for an agreement soon.”
IFFO often cites Peru’s anchovy fishery as a model of sustainable practice. However, not all regions operate to the same standards. “Emerging sectors like those in West Africa are sometimes focused on short-term gain with less regulatory enforcement,” said Glencross. “It’s frustrating that West Africa, which only contributes 2.5-3% of global fishmeal and fish oil, generates 99% of the negative publicity around unsustainable practices. This misrepresents the industry. Producers in Peru, Chile, and Scandinavia work hard to do the right thing, but they are often unfairly blamed for issues in places where they don't even operate.”
As part of the Global Roundtable of Marine Ingredients, IFFO is spearheading development projects in West Africa, South and Southeast Asia. “These are long-term and complex efforts, but we’re already seeing progress,” Bachis said. Ongoing MarinTrust-accepted FIPs in Thailand and India are also showing encouraging results.
Despite these efforts, consumer awareness remains limited. “We’ve been working for years to educate the market and consumers about our practices. Some segments of this industry are exceptionally well-managed, often more so than alternative protein sources,” said Bachis.
He also noted a shift in perception around novel ingredients. “When these alternatives first entered the market, they claimed they would replace fishmeal and fish oil due to sustainability concerns. We don’t hear that anymore.”
The future
According to FAO, by 2050, the world must increase the aquatic animal supply by 22%. Ensuring an adequate supply of marine ingredients will be a major challenge.
“In 5-10 years, demand for fishmeal and fish oil will grow along with the population and the middle class. The real challenge is a shortage of EPA and DHA for both humans and animals. In this sense, IFFO supports increased production of alternatives like microalgae oil,” Bachis said.
While demand will grow, supply remains constrained. “The industry must become more resilient to origin-specific shortages. We need diversified sources and better technology to adapt to different raw materials,” García Herz emphasized.
Bernasconi said that “the omega-3 industry is too dependent on Peru. As global disruptions continue, flexibility in sourcing is crucial. We are seeing a welcome shift toward oils with 30% omega-3, even when EPA and DHA ratios vary. That flexibility is exactly what we need.”
“We recommend sourcing sustainably and globally, using the most effective oil for each application, and embracing circularity,” García Herz concluded.
