The reelection of Donald Trump as U.S. president could have far-reaching effects on the global economy and trade, especially impacting industries like seafood. Trump's 2024 campaign proposals include a 60% tariff on products from China and a 10-20% tariff on other imports, including food items like seafood. If implemented, these tariffs could significantly impact, for example, the Norwegian salmon industry, which views the U.S. as a critical growth market.
Even if only part of Trump’s trade pledges are enacted, there could be substantial economic effects, especially in agro-food trade. During Trump’s first term, China and the U.S. engaged in a trade war beginning in 2018, leading to severe repercussions for U.S. farmers and agricultural exports. The U.S. expanded tariffs on steel, aluminum, and a wide range of Chinese imports, sparking retaliatory tariffs from China and other countries on U.S. goods, including agricultural products. Between mid-2018 and late 2019, these retaliatory measures led to over $27 billion in lost agricultural exports, with China accounting for the vast majority of losses.
The trade war de-escalated with the "Phase I Agreement" signed in January 2020, in which China committed to purchasing $80 billion in U.S. agricultural products over two years. Though China increased its purchases significantly, it ultimately fell short of its commitments, buying just $59.2 billion due to COVID-19 logistics challenges. Despite this, the renewed trade included record volumes of U.S. soybeans and corn, partially rebuilding U.S.-China trade relations.
Trump’s support among U.S. farmers, especially in key agricultural states, remains strong despite the hardships experienced during his first term’s trade war. Farmers hope to recover from previous losses and increase access to China, the largest soy importer. However, China has reduced its dependence on U.S. farm goods, sourcing from Brazil and Argentina since the 2018 trade war. New trade tensions would further challenge U.S. farmers, as low prices for corn and soy—pressured by the 2024 record harvests and competition from Brazil—have already affected the market. According to a recent study by the National Corn Growers Association and American Soybean Association, renewed tariffs could cost soy farmers between $3.6 billion and $5.9 billion in annual production value, depending on the trade dynamics.
