Trump’s new trade policy is expected to have a significant impact on trade flows, including feed ingredients and aquaculture products.
President Trump announced a 10% "baseline" tariff on all imports to the US that goes into effect on April 5. These include the United Kingdom, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, Turkey, Ecuador, Colombia, Argentina, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Peru, Chile, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, among others.
White House officials also said that they would impose what they describe as specific reciprocal tariffs on roughly 60 of the "worst offenders". This goes into effect on April 9. Trump's officials say these countries charge higher tariffs on US goods, impose "non-tariff" barriers to US trade or have otherwise acted in ways they feel undermine American economic goals.
The key trading partners subject to these customised tariff rates include the European Union (20%), China (54%), Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%), Japan (24%), Cambodia (49%), South Africa (30%), Taiwan (32%), India (26%), Indonesia (32%) and Norway (15%).
Norwegian salmon
The announcement comes after Norway reported an export increase of NOK 1.8 billion (56%) in seafood to the US in this year's first quarter compared with the same period last year. The US was the largest growth market in terms of value and accounted for 11% of total seafood exports in the first quarter, with salmon as one of the main drivers.
“The USA has grown strongly as a market in the first quarter and is now by far the largest single market for Norwegian seafood in terms of value, ahead of both Poland and Denmark. Despite favorable export figures, we are now entering an uncertain time for world trade with increased tariffs. The government is working actively in favor of Norwegian interests and is in close contact with the industry. Although the industry is adaptable, the situation may be challenging for parts of the Norwegian seafood industry and lead to certain changes in the flow of goods for global seafood trade," said Marianne Sivertsen Næss from the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Shrimp
In its Shrimp Insights, Willem van der Pijl said that if tariffs remain unchanged, Ecuador and several smaller producers such as Argentina, Honduras, Mexico, Guatemala, Peru, and Saudi Arabia have a competitive advantage over most Asian countries within the US shrimp market. They may take advantage of the situation and gain market share.
“India is relatively advantageous in Asia compared to other major suppliers such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. It may aim to take market share in product segments that Latin American producers are not ready to supply. Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand will face difficult times regarding their US business,” van der Pijl said.
A call for direct US/EU negotiations to exempt all agri-food and feed products
FEFAC president Pedro Cordero expressed his deep regret about the US imposition of reciprocal tariffs of 20% on the EU, covering all agri-food exports to the US. He also shared concerns about the announced European Commission counter tariffs including essential, critical and strategic US agri-food products and feed ingredients, like soybeans, coccidiostats, lysine and probiotics as well as corn and co-products like corn gluten feed and DDGS, noting that current EU import tariffs are at “0 duty” level for essential US feed ingredients.
Cordero urged the US and EU trade authorities “to open direct negotiations, seeking to exempt all agri-food products including essential feed ingredients from both US reciprocal and EU counter tariff schedules to safeguard global food security and resilience of the agri-food value chain”.
Cordero stressed that “access to essential, critical and strategic U.S. feed ingredients is a crucial component of our collective EU and US feed chain efforts to ensure both feed and food security in the US, EU and at global level”. He referred to existing great opportunities to double US/EU ag products and feed trade, which could contribute to close the current US agri-food trade deficit with the EU.
He noted that “currently, the EU imports up to 6 million tons of soybean from the US, accounting for 44% of all the imports of soybeans to the EU with an estimated value of EUR 3 billion for which there is no direct substitution from alternative origins.” He also highlighted the critical importance of US-produced trace minerals, lysine sulphate and probiotics and postbiotics.
FEFAC market experts estimate that EU procurement costs for soy products from other origins may rise between 5-10% globally due to increasing market demand for those origins. Considering an average cost increase of 7.5% on all EU soy products imports (beans and meal) valued at EUR 15 billion, this would lead to an additional cost of approximately EUR 2 billion for the EU feed and livestock sector, which will come “on top” of estimated EUDR compliance costs for all soy products of EUR 2.25 billion.
EU provisional anti-dumping duties for lysine imports from China, applied since January 2025, led to extra procurement costs of EUR 500 million annually. Hence, FEFAC estimates a total combined cost price increase for feed supplies to the EU livestock sector, due to soy and lysine related EC import tariffs and EUDR compliance, ranging between EUR 4-5 billion annually.
FEFAC experts also underlined the strategic importance of keeping open market access to US corn and relevant co-products, including DDGS and corn gluten feed, accounting for 3 million tons of US exports in 2024.
