Export Demand Brightens for a Bumper U.S. Soybean Crop
In September, USDA raised its forecast of the 2010 soybean yield to a record high 44.7 bushels per acre, increasing production by 50 million bushels to a record 3.483 billion bushels. Based on strong export sales commitments, 2010/11 soybean exports were forecast 50 million bushels higher this month to 1.485 billion. The higher exports are expected to trim season-ending soybean stocks by 10 million bushels to 350 million. Supported by strong rallies in wheat and corn markets, USDA raised its forecast of the 2010/11 average price by 60 cents to $9.15-$10.65 per bushel.

The forecast of China's soybean imports for 2010/11 is increased 3 million metric tons this month to 55 million, reflecting its strong consumption growth for pork, poultry, and aquaculture in China. Although import purchases of soybean oil by China for 2010/11 are expected to rebound to 2 million tons, this is 150,000 tons below last month’s forecast due to a higher forecast crush.

Download USDA Oil Crops Outlook, 09.13.2010 [PDF]