USDA Oil Crops Outlook
U.S. soybean production in 2010 is projected to slip to 3.31 billion bushels, based on 77.1 million acres harvested and a trend yield estimate of 42.9 bushels per acre. Higher beginning stocks could limit the reduction in total supply to only 2 million bushels. U.S. soybean exports for 2010/11 are seen declining to 1.35 billion bushels from this year’s expected record of 1.455 billion. The domestic crush would also decline to 1.64 billion bushels as export demand for soybean meal and soybean oil tapers off from this year’s record highs. Soybean ending stocks would surge to a 4-year high of 365 million bushels, and likely dampen the U.S. season average farm price to $8.00-$9.50 per bushel, compared with $9.50 this year.
World oilseed production in 2010/11 is seen edging up to 440 million metric tons from 437.8 million this season. Larger expected crops of sunflowerseed, peanuts, cottonseed, and rapeseed should offset lower soybean production, which is projected down 3 percent to 250.1 million tons.
Global exports of soybeans and soybean meal are each projected to increase by 3 percent, to 87.9 million and 56.6 million tons, respectively. Download report from link below [PDF].
