USDA’s Crop Production report published a 2020/21 U.S. soybean yield forecast at a record 53.3 bushels per acre that boosts the crop to 4.425 billion bushels. Coupled with large beginning stocks, expected total supplies for 2020/21 are the highest ever at 5.055 billion bushels. Supply gains could further strengthen U.S. soybean exports for 2020/21 by 75 million bushels to 2.125 billion. Even so, a bigger surplus may accumulate in season-ending stocks to 610 million bushels.

USDA also forecasts that 2019/20 soybean exports from Brazil may swell to 93.5 million metric tons. Although July 2020 soybean shipments from Brazil dropped 21% to 10.4 million tons from June, gains are still accumulating against a year ago (with a 39% increase over the July 2019 trade).

On the other side of global soybean trade, 2019/20 imports for China may bulge to 98 million tons versus 82.5 million for 2018/19. That is a 23% year-to-year increase in the world’s largest importing country.

Global sunflower seed production for 2020/21 is forecast down nearly one million tons this month to 55.8 million. Lower output in Russia, Kazakhstan and Moldova is only partly offset by larger crops for Ukraine and the EU. As of peanut production, this year’s forecast is by 700,000 tons to 6.2 million.

Read the Crop Production report here.